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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Charles argues that to solve the "insider trading" accusation in prediction markets without destroying privacy, we need "sophisticated selective disclosure tools" using Zero-Knowledge proofs (proving you are accredited/not an insider without revealing your name). As prediction markets attract regulatory heat (SEC/CFTC), the only survival mechanism is "Compliant Privacy." Layer 1s and protocols that have integrated ZK-identity solutions (which Cardano/IOG is building with partners like ZKME) will become the required infrastructure for legal prediction markets. Long ADA and Privacy Infrastructure as a "picks and shovels" play on regulated prediction markets. Regulators may reject ZK proofs and demand full KYC/doxxing, rendering "selective disclosure" tech less valuable. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson and Ding X on Predict.Fun, ...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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"Institutions, they're starting to federate the industry... What they want to do long term is move everybody into a custodial holder... and then ban DeFi and non-custodial wallets so they can consolidate the entire industry to like 10 or 15 of big actors." While Hoskinson opposes this philosophically, he acknowledges these entities are making "forward progress." If the industry shifts from "wild west" DeFi to a "Federated" model, the value capture shifts from decentralized protocols to the regulated gatekeepers (Asset Managers and Banks) who own the custodial relationships. LONG (Betting on the successful capture of the asset class by TradFi). Regulatory pushback against banking monopolies or a resurgence of privacy-preserving tech that bypasses custodians. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson on Institutional "Federatio...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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"Bitcoin... it will require probably a hard fork... and that's going to be challenging... We do with Cardano, Polka Dot does, Tezos does, everybody who did onchain governance does. It's a six-month conversation for us." As technological threats like Quantum Computing emerge (projected ~2033), rigid blockchains that cannot easily upgrade (Bitcoin) face existential governance risks. Chains with built-in on-chain governance (Cardano, Polkadot, Tezos) can upgrade their cryptographic primitives seamlessly, making them safer long-term infrastructure plays for institutional adoption. LONG (Quality/Governance premium). Network effects of Bitcoin outweigh its technical rigidity; Quantum threat may be further away than predicted. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson on Institutional "Federatio...
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Feb 12, 2026
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AVOID
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"The challenge is that retail's just tired. It's like that meme where it says, 'I'm tired, boss.'... Donald Trump tweets a meme... someone creates a memecoin that hits $10 million... market makers make a lot of money and everyone else loses." Memecoins rely entirely on fresh retail liquidity and "greater fool" theory. Hoskinson explicitly states that the retail consumer is exhausted, disillusioned, and out of capital. Without a fresh wave of retail suckers, the PVP (Player vs Player) dynamics of memecoins turn negative sum. AVOID (Liquidity exhaustion). A sudden return of retail mania driven by external macro liquidity events. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson on Institutional "Federatio...
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Feb 12, 2026
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LONG
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"By 2030, the majority of internet searches in commerce will be agentic... The vast majority of people using internet aren't people, they're robots... And the fuel that powers these guys is going to be crypto... and stable coins." The next adoption cycle won't be driven by human speculation but by machine utility. AI Agents cannot open bank accounts; they must use blockchain rails and stablecoins to execute economic transactions. Protocols that optimize for agent-to-agent interaction (low latency, deterministic finality, stablecoin liquidity) will capture this new GDP. LONG. Regulatory crackdowns on autonomous AI financial agents. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson on Institutional "Federatio...
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Feb 12, 2026
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WATCH
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"Bitcoin... it's 2009 technology... a seven transaction per second system that's blind, deaf, and dumb... upgrading the postquantum is an opportunity for for them to acknowledge that and actually innovate." While currently the market leader, Bitcoin is technically stagnant. The looming need for a Quantum hard fork creates a binary event: it either forces Bitcoin to finally innovate and modernize (bullish), or the governance wars cause a chain split/crisis (bearish). WATCH (Monitor the "Quantum Benchmarking Initiative" results in late 2026/2027). Bitcoin maximalism ignores the threat until it is too late. |
CoinDesk
Charles Hoskinson on Institutional "Federatio...
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